NOAA 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Forecasters within NOAA’s National Weather Service predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. 

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher.

Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (storms with winds of 74 mph or higher).

Including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center typically updates the Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

2024 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA GOES-16 satellite image of Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Franklin in the Atlantic Ocean August 29, 2023

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA has predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024 due to several contributing factors.

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity.

When La Niña conditions are present, a reduction in wind shear in the tropics favors the formation and strengthening of tropical storms, according to forecasters.

Additionally, near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean provide more energy to fuel these storms. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

NOAA states that climate change is warming the ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge.

2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

The World Meteorological Organization has selected a list of names for the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclones, which are used to identify storms and enhance communication.

The names for the 2024 season are:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.

These names are chosen to alternate between male and female and are intended to be easily remembered and pronounced by the public and the meteorological community. The use of such names has been a significant factor in raising public awareness and ensuring safety during storm events.

NOAA plans to improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season.

Improvements will include:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin. 

Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current version of the graphic.

This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every 6 hours.

New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year:

Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, made possible through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.

System Upgrades:

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting. 

New this year, NOAA will gather additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and in the vicinity of Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024. 

Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast.

Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data. 

The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features. 

NOAA seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Recap

The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone season was marked by significant activity, with 20 named storms, 7 of which intensified into hurricanes, and 3 reaching major hurricane status. The season commenced unusually early with a subtropical storm forming in January, and concluded with the dissipation of the last system in late October. The strongest storm, Hurricane Lee, reached a peak intensity with winds of 165 mph and a minimum pressure of 926 mbar.

2017 Atlantic Hurricanes - Tropical Storms

Hurricane Harvey landfall    photo credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

North America's 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has included a number of record setting storms.

NOAA's 2017 hurricane season outlook August update called for a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season, with 14-19 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes.

Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the night of Friday, August 25th near Rockport, Texas, as a Category 4 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Rainfall from Hurricane Harvey exceeded 51 inches in some areas, setting a preliminary record for the greatest amount of measured single-storm rainfall for the continental US.

In early September, Hurricane Irma, a powerful category 5 storm churned across the Atlantic and Caribbean, and continental U.S.

The storm made landfall on September 10th in the Florida Keys as a category four storm.

Hurricane Irma caused severe damage in Barbuda, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Anguilla, the Virgin Islands (British and U.S.), and Florida (USA).

Hurricane Jose (Category 4) affected the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, The Bahamas, Bermuda, and the East Coast of the United States.

On September 8, Hurricane Katia (Category 1) made landfall near Tecolutla, Mexico.

Another storm, Maria, reached Hurricane status On September 17, 2017. Over the next 24 hours, Maria intensified explosively into a Category 5 hurricane.

On September 20th, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 hurricane, with winds of 155 mph that knocked out power for the entire island.

January 2016 Atlantic Coast Blizzard

The January 22-24 blizzard, which dumped heavy snow from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England has been rated as a Category 4 or “Crippling” winter storm on NOAA’s Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale, also known as NESIS.

The storm ranked as the fourth most powerful winter storm to impact the Northeast U.S. since 1950.

The snowstorm covered about 434 thousand square miles and impacted about 102.8 million people. Of those, about 1.5 million people had over 30 inches of snowfall; almost 24 million had over 20 inches.

The storm was given a variety of names including Jonas, snowzilla, and others.

Canada to Support Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)

The Honourable Catherine McKenna, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, recently announced Canada’s contribution of $10 million to support Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) in vulnerable communities.

Canada’s contribution will be delivered through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to improve Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in developing countries, particularly the small island developing states and least developed countries.

These systems have been proven to reduce loss of life and economic hardship caused by meteorological hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, severe storms, forest fires, and heat waves.

The announcement is part of Canada’s historic pledge of $2.65 billion over the next five years to support developing countries’ transition to low carbon economies and adapt to the changing climate.

source: Canada Ministry of Environment and Climate Change

USA Winter Weather Predictions 2015-2016 (NOAA)

In North America, information related to weather is always popular. One of the anticipated reports is the U.S. Winter Outlook, issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

According to NOAA's 2015-2016 U.S. Winter Outlook, the upcoming winter could be cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier.

This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream.

Other factors that often play a role in the winter weather include the Arctic Oscillation, which influences the number of arctic air masses that penetrate into the South and nor'easters on the East Coast, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can impact the number of heavy rain storms in the Pacific Northwest.

2015 USA Winter Outlook Highlights (December through February):

Precipitation

Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska. 

Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperatures
 
Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center