2024 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA GOES-16 satellite image of Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Franklin in the Atlantic Ocean August 29, 2023

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA has predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024 due to several contributing factors.

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity.

When La Niña conditions are present, a reduction in wind shear in the tropics favors the formation and strengthening of tropical storms, according to forecasters.

Additionally, near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean provide more energy to fuel these storms. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

NOAA states that climate change is warming the ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge.

2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

The World Meteorological Organization has selected a list of names for the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclones, which are used to identify storms and enhance communication.

The names for the 2024 season are:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.

These names are chosen to alternate between male and female and are intended to be easily remembered and pronounced by the public and the meteorological community. The use of such names has been a significant factor in raising public awareness and ensuring safety during storm events.

NOAA plans to improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season.

Improvements will include:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin. 

Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current version of the graphic.

This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every 6 hours.

New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year:

Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, made possible through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.

System Upgrades:

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting. 

New this year, NOAA will gather additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and in the vicinity of Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024. 

Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast.

Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data. 

The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features. 

NOAA seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Recap

The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone season was marked by significant activity, with 20 named storms, 7 of which intensified into hurricanes, and 3 reaching major hurricane status. The season commenced unusually early with a subtropical storm forming in January, and concluded with the dissipation of the last system in late October. The strongest storm, Hurricane Lee, reached a peak intensity with winds of 165 mph and a minimum pressure of 926 mbar.

2019 Summer Weather Facts

In 2019, weather has had major impacts on North America and Planet Earth in general. Record high temperatures resulted in loss of life, crop failures, and shrank Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to historic lows.

2019 Weather Facts:

July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded, according to the U.S. National Weather Service.

The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

The previous hottest month on record was July 2016.Nine of the 10 hottest Julys have occurred since 2005, with the last five years ranking as the five hottest. July 2019 was also the 43rd consecutive July and 415th consecutive month with above-average global temperatures.

The period from January through July produced a global temperature that was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 56.9 degrees, tying with 2017 as the second-hottest year to date on record.

It was the hottest year to date for parts of North and South America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, the southern half of Africa, portions of the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean, and the Atlantic Ocean.

Average Arctic sea ice set a record low for July, running 19.8% below average – surpassing the previous historic low of July 2012.

Average Antarctic sea-ice coverage was 4.3% below the 1981-2010 average, making it the smallest for July in the 41-year record.

Some cool spots: Parts of Scandinavia and western and eastern Russia had temperatures at least 2.7 degrees F below average.

source: National Weather Service

Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Volume II

A new federal report finds that climate change is affecting the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, and human health and welfare across the U.S. and its territories.

Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4), released by the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), focuses on climate change impacts, risks and adaptations occurring in the U.S.

The report contains supporting evidence from 16 national-level topic chapters (e.g., water, oceans, energy, and human health), 10 regional chapters and two chapters that focus on societal responses to climate change. USGCRP also released the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2).

NOAA is one of 13 federal agencies that contributed significantly to the Fourth National Climate Assessment.

Key findings of the NCA4, Vol. II:

Communities

Human health and safety, our quality of life, and the rate of economic growth in communities across the U.S. are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The cascading impacts of climate change threaten the natural, built and social systems we rely on, both within and beyond the nation’s borders.

Societal efforts to respond to climate change have expanded in the last five years, but not at the scale needed to avoid substantial damages to the economy, environment, and human health over the coming decades.

Without substantial and sustained global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and regional initiatives to prepare for anticipated changes, climate change is expected to cause growing losses to American infrastructure and property and impede the rate of economic growth over this century.

Agriculture and food production

Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly challenge the quality and quantity of U.S. crop yields, livestock health, price stability and rural livelihoods.
Ecosystems

Continued changes to Earth’s climate will cause major disruptions in some ecosystems. Some coral reef and sea ice ecosystems are already experiencing transformational changes, affecting communities and economies that rely upon them.

Water and the coasts

Changes in the quality and quantity of fresh water available for people and the environment  are increasing risks and costs to agriculture, energy production, industry and recreation.

Climate change will transform coastal regions by the latter part of this century, with ripple effects on other regions and sectors. Many communities should expect higher costs and lower property values from sea level rise.

Health

Climate change threatens the health and well-being of the American people by causing increasing extreme weather, changes to air quality, the spread of new diseases by insects and pests, and changes to the availability of food and water.

To access the report and find background information, please visit the USGCRP website: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/

source: NOAA

Canada to Support Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS)

The Honourable Catherine McKenna, Minister of Environment and Climate Change, recently announced Canada’s contribution of $10 million to support Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) in vulnerable communities.

Canada’s contribution will be delivered through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to improve Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems in developing countries, particularly the small island developing states and least developed countries.

These systems have been proven to reduce loss of life and economic hardship caused by meteorological hazards such as tropical cyclones, floods, severe storms, forest fires, and heat waves.

The announcement is part of Canada’s historic pledge of $2.65 billion over the next five years to support developing countries’ transition to low carbon economies and adapt to the changing climate.

source: Canada Ministry of Environment and Climate Change

USGS Alaska Permafrost Study

Permafrost in Alaska could be reduced significantly by the end of the century, according to a recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study.

Using statistically modeled maps drawn from satellite data and other sources, USGS scientists have projected that the near-surface permafrost that presently underlies 38 percent of boreal and arctic Alaska would be reduced by 16 to 24 percent by the end of the 21st century under widely accepted climate scenarios.

Permafrost is defined by USGS as ground that stays below freezing for at least two consecutive years.

In addition to developing maps of near-surface permafrost distributions, the researchers developed maps of maximum thaw depth, or active-layer depth, and provided uncertainty estimates.

The research has been published in Remote Sensing of Environment. The current near-surface permafrost map is available via ScienceBase.