Pages

Monday, May 27, 2024

2024 NOAA Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Franklin
NOAA GOES-16 satellite image of Hurricane Idalia and Hurricane Franklin in the Atlantic Ocean August 29, 2023

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

NOAA has predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2024 due to several contributing factors.

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity.

When La NiƱa conditions are present, a reduction in wind shear in the tropics favors the formation and strengthening of tropical storms, according to forecasters.

Additionally, near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean provide more energy to fuel these storms. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms.

NOAA states that climate change is warming the ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge.

2024 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

The World Meteorological Organization has selected a list of names for the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclones, which are used to identify storms and enhance communication.

The names for the 2024 season are:

Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Milton, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, and William.

These names are chosen to alternate between male and female and are intended to be easily remembered and pronounced by the public and the meteorological community. The use of such names has been a significant factor in raising public awareness and ensuring safety during storm events.

NOAA plans to improvements to its forecast communications, decision support, and storm recovery efforts this season.

Improvements will include:

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all Public Advisories, the Tropical Cyclone Discussion, the Tropical Cyclone Update and Key Messages in the Atlantic basin. 

Beginning on or around August 15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental U.S. Research indicates that the addition of inland watches and warnings to the cone graphic will help communicate inland hazards during tropical cyclone events without overcomplicating the current version of the graphic.

This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of having to wait for the next full advisory issued every 6 hours.

New tools for hurricane analysis and forecasting this year:

Two new forecast models developed by NOAA researchers will go into operation this season: The Modular Ocean Model or MOM6 will be added to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System to improve the representation of the key role the ocean plays in driving hurricane intensity. Another model, SDCON, will predict the probability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification.

NOAA’s new generation of Flood Inundation Mapping, made possible through President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, will provide information to emergency and water managers to prepare and respond to potential flooding and help local officials better prepare to protect people and infrastructure.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season. This graphic provides forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance for a specified time period.

System Upgrades:

NOAA will upgrade its observing systems critical in understanding and forecasting hurricanes. These projects will provide more observations of the ocean and atmosphere in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, on the U.S. East Coast and in the tropical Atlantic.

NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center recently upgraded many coastal weather buoys in the tropical western Atlantic and Caribbean to include time of occurrence and measurements of one-minute wind speed and direction, 5-second peak wind gust and direction and lowest 1-minute barometric pressure to support tropical cyclone forecasting. 

New this year, NOAA will gather additional observations using Directional Wave Spectra Drifters (DWSDs), deployed from the NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft and in the vicinity of Saildrones, uncrewed surface vehicles which will be deployed at the start of the hurricane season, providing one-minute data in real time. 11-12 Saildrones are planned for deployment in 2024. 

Starting in June, dozens of observational underwater gliders are planned to deploy in waters off the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S. coast.

Additionally, a new lightweight dropsonde called Streamsonde will be deployed into developing tropical storms, collecting multiple real-time observations to collect valuable wind data. 

The CHAOS (Coordinated Hurricane Atmosphere-Ocean Sampling) research experiment aims to improve the understanding of air-sea interactions, providing sustained monitoring of key ocean features. 

NOAA seasonal outlooks

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Recap

The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone season was marked by significant activity, with 20 named storms, 7 of which intensified into hurricanes, and 3 reaching major hurricane status. The season commenced unusually early with a subtropical storm forming in January, and concluded with the dissipation of the last system in late October. The strongest storm, Hurricane Lee, reached a peak intensity with winds of 165 mph and a minimum pressure of 926 mbar.

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Coastal New England Facts

New England Coast | credit: NOAA
This article includes a collection of facts and other information about coastal New England.

New England's coastal states include Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

The region is bordered the Canadian Maritimes to the North and the Mid Atlantic states to the south.

Coastal New England is famous for its fishing ports, coastal villages, rocky shorelines, and nautical art.

Coastal New England is popular among vacationers, tourists, and newlyweds. The region has an excellent selection of hotels, vacation rentals, bed and breakfasts, inns, shops, taverns, and restaurants.

Coastal New England is also famous for its boating culture. Several boat configurations that originated in the region have become popular around the nation. Sailboats are also very popular and are often found in ports throughout New England.

Coastal New England holds potential as a major producer of offshore wind power. Near Connecticut, the Block Island Wind Farm was the first of its kind in the U.S. Off the coast of Massachusetts, the Vineyard Wind 1 project will include 62 wind turbines with potential to generate 800 megawatts of power annually.

New England Seafood

Maine Lobsters

New England is world famous for its lobsters, mussels, fish, and other seafood. Much of New England's seafood is available locally (in season).

Other fish and shellfish are processed and shipped to American markets or exported to other nations.

Types of saltwater fish that are commonly landed in New England's coastal ports include Atlantic cod, Atlantic haddock, Atlantic pollock, hake, whiting, yellowtail flounder, winter flounder, fluke, monkfish, Acadian redfish, spiny dogfish, scup, weakfish, black sea bass, bluefish, and others.

New England is also famous for wild caught shellfish. New England fishermen produce catches of American lobsters, coldwater shrimp, sea scallops, quahog clams, surf clams, soft-shelled clams, oysters, blue mussels, and other shellfish.

Aquaculture is another important maritime industry in New England. Aquaculturists produce oysters, clams, scallops, seaweed, and other products.

New England seafood cuisine is characterized by clam chowder, baked cod or haddock, fried soft shelled clams, lobster rolls, clam bakes, traditional oyster recipes, and other seafood dishes.

Related Information

New England USA

An Overview of North America

Wednesday, December 11, 2019

2019 NOAA Arctic Report Card

Northern Fur Seal | credit: NOAA
The latest Arctic Report Card (ARC 2019) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recounts the numerous geophysical and biological changes that occurred in the northern polar region during 2019.

The report cites a number of important events, including near-record high air and ocean temperatures and melting of the Greenland ice sheet, low sea-ice extents, and shifts in the distribution of commercially valuable marine species.

The Arctic Report Card is an annual volume of original, peer-reviewed environmental observations and analysis of a region undergoing rapid and dramatic change.

Compiled by 81 scientists from 12 nations, the 2019 Arctic Report Card tracks a number of environmental indicators to inform decisions by local, state and federal leaders, as Arctic residents confront the challenges and opportunities presented by a rapidly changing climate and ecosystem.

"The speed and trajectory of the changes sweeping the Arctic, many occurring faster than anticipated, makes NOAA’s continued investment in Arctic research and activities all the more important," said retired Navy Rear Adm. Timothy Gallaudet, Ph.D., deputy undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere at NOAA

The Arctic Report Card is organized into three sections:

Vital Signs provides annual updates on seven topics: Surface Air Temperature; Terrestrial Snow Cover; Greenland Ice Sheet; Sea Ice; Sea Surface Temperature; Arctic Ocean Primary Productivity; and Tundra Greenness.

Other Indicators explores topics that are updated periodically.

Frostbites reports on new and emerging issues, and topics that relate to long-term scientific observations in the Arctic.

2019 Arctic Report Card Highlights:

The average annual land surface air temperature in the Arctic between October 2018 and August 2019 was the second-warmest since 1900.

North American Arctic snow cover in May 2019 was the 5th lowest for that month in 53 years of record. June snow cover was the 3rd lowest measured.

Exceptionally early snowmelt was observed in March over the northwestern Canadian Arctic and Alaska, during a month when maximum snow depth is normally reached.

The extent and magnitude of ice loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet from fall 2018 through 2019 rivaled the previous record year for ice loss, 2012.

Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2019 was the second-lowest since satellite observations began in 1979.

The maximum ice cover towards the end of winter 2019 was 7th lowest in the satellite record. Bering Sea winter sea ice extent in 2019 narrowly missed eclipsing the record low set in 2018.

Loss of sea ice and changes in bottom water temperature caused Arctic fish species to shift to more northern waters between 2010 and 2018. Commercially valuable southern species are expanding their range north to take advantage of changing conditions.

In addition to the regular chapters, ARC 2019 brings a specific focus on the Bering Sea, including an essay from the Bering Sea Elders, a group representing 70 indigenous communities across the region.

source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration


Related Information

2019 Summer Weather Facts

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

2020 National Parks Fee Free Days (USA)

Acadia National Park | credit: NPS

A number of national parks across the USA will waive entrance fees on five days in 2020.

National Parks Fee Free days encourage people to get outdoors and spend time with  friends and family in U.S. national parks.

The National Park Service (NPS) will offer the following fee-free days in 2020:
  • Monday, January 20 – Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
  • Saturday, April 18 – Start of National Park Week / National Junior Ranger Day
  • Tuesday, August 25 – National Park Service Birthday
  • Saturday, September 26 – National Public Lands Day
  • Wednesday, November 11 – Veterans Day

This fee-free opportunity applies to entrance fees only and does not affect fees for camping, backcountry reservations, tours, or other special uses.

Normally, 110 of the 419 national parks in the country charge an entrance fee, while the other 309 national parks do not.

The National Park System includes more than 84 million acres and is comprised of 419 sites, including national parks, national historical parks, national monuments, national recreation areas, national battlefields, and national seashores. There is at least one national park in every state.

source: National Park Service